LADDER SCOREBOARD Updated

History

How teams' actual and projected ladder finish changed over time.

Adelaide Brisbane Lions Carlton Collingwood Essendon Fremantle Geelong Gold Coast Greater Western Sydney Hawthorn Melbourne North Melbourne Port Adelaide Richmond St Kilda Sydney West Coast Western Bulldogs
Season In Progress: Scores below are marked against the current ladder. Models may rapidly gain or lose points as the ladder changes and past projections become better or worse in retrospect.

Accuracy

How closely each model's weekly projections matched the final ladder (or, for a season in progress, the current ladder). Higher scores are better.

Score 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Geelong Sydney Greater Western Sydney Melbourne Port Adelaide Carlton Essendon Fremantle Gold Coast Collingwood Western Bulldogs Adelaide Brisbane Lions St Kilda West Coast Richmond Hawthorn North Melbourne
Live Ladders 53.6 4.1 5.3 5.5 6.0 5.7 5.9 6.6 7.3 7.3 4.2 5.7 7.9 6.6 7.4 7.2 -0.1 6.4 7.1 5.8 6.9 6.4 3.3 2.0 6.6 8.5 6.3 9.2
AFLalytics 52.5 3.2 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.3 6.7 7.5 7.5 3.8 5.3 6.8 6.2 6.6 6.9 2.4 6.4 6.5 6.1 6.4 6.3 4.9 3.2 7.3 7.0 5.5 7.6
Squiggle 51.5 3.5 4.7 5.2 5.4 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.4 7.3 4.7 4.3 6.2 7.3 6.3 6.8 2.6 6.4 6.6 6.6 5.7 6.0 3.7 3.1 6.5 7.3 5.2 7.9
Wheelo Ratings 49.9 3.2 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.9 6.4 7.2 7.2 3.0 5.1 7.0 6.9 6.2 6.8 0.8 6.4 6.7 5.9 6.5 5.9 3.1 3.4 6.2 7.4 4.6 7.8
Winnable 47.9 3.0 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.6 5.9 7.0 7.0 3.5 4.1 5.3 6.4 5.9 6.5 3.7 6.0 6.5 6.0 5.9 5.8 2.4 2.6 6.6 6.9 3.1 8.6
Glicko Ratings 47.8 3.7 5.0 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.8 6.9 7.7 0.9 6.8 8.0 6.9 6.6 6.9 5.0 6.0 6.9 6.6 5.7 5.9 5.0 5.8 6.2 5.6 3.8 8.9
The Footycast 47.1 2.8 5.5 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.7 7.1 7.9 3.7 4.9 5.9 7.4 7.0 6.9 4.6 6.4 6.8 5.9 4.9 6.4 3.7 2.8 6.2 6.8 7.4 8.4
Don't Blame the Data 46.8 3.7 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.5 7.7 6.0 6.7 4.2 7.7 7.3 6.9 3.0 5.1 7.0 6.5 4.9 5.4 1.2 4.1 6.9 7.6 5.5 9.3
Ladder 45.7 1.5 3.8 3.1 3.8 6.1 7.4 10.0 10.0 2.3 7.8 6.3 6.3 7.1 7.4 5.2 4.9 5.6 4.1 3.7 4.9 7.4 3.0 4.9 6.3 8.2 7.4
Stattraction 43.9 3.2 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.8 6.6 7.5 4.8 2.9 8.0 7.6 7.4 6.8 -4.3 6.8 7.4 7.0 6.5 6.2 -1.9 5.5 4.4 8.4 6.9 8.0
What Snoo Thinks 42.8 1.9 4.7 4.7 5.6 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.8 -1.7 5.0 8.1 7.5 7.5 7.3 -3.3 6.6 6.9 5.7 6.8 4.7 2.3 5.3 5.7 8.2 5.3 8.5
ZaphBot 42.3 2.9 5.0 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.8 6.1 7.3 3.6 5.1 7.8 7.5 6.6 6.7 -3.8 6.3 6.9 5.3 5.2 5.9 1.9 3.8 4.1 7.6 7.2 7.6
Matter of Stats 41.4 2.7 4.0 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.8 6.4 7.3 1.7 3.8 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.6 -0.1 6.1 6.7 6.2 6.2 5.2 2.3 3.1 7.0 6.9 4.6 7.0
AFL Lab 40.7 3.3 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.2 5.8 6.4 1.7 3.4 4.7 6.8 7.0 6.5 1.5 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.2 5.2 2.5 3.1 7.1 5.4 4.1 8.1
PlusSixOne 40.7 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.8 5.7 2.3 2.2 2.6 5.6 5.3 5.9 4.1 6.1 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.5 3.0 2.2 7.2 3.2 4.2 5.9
Elo Predicts! 40.0 3.0 4.5 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.7 5.7 6.5 7.3 6.4 8.4 8.0 5.6 7.5 -3.1 5.2 3.8 2.5 6.5 8.1 -6.5 2.9 4.5 5.7 8.1 9.1
Informed Stats 22.9 5.1 5.3 5.2 7.2 8.4 5.9 7.1 7.9 5.8 6.6 -3.0 5.4 7.8 3.5 5.7 8.3 -1.0 6.6 4.4 8.2 6.4 9.0
FMI 15.4 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 -3.4 2.2 5.6 7.5 -3.0 7.0 -5.4 6.3 -0.0 1.5 6.1 0.8 -8.9 -0.9 7.7 4.1 5.9 1.8

"Ladder" is a prediction that every team remains in the same ladder position, with 100% probability.

Ladders include results from the nominated round. For example, a Round 1 ladder was made after Round 1, not before. A Round 0 ladder was made before the start of the season.

Accuracy is determined by Rank Probability Score, a proper scoring rule that rates the accuracy of forecasts that comprise a range of probabilities. Since the result is often a very small number — less than 0.1 for good forecasts — it is scaled with SCORE = 50 * (1 - RPS) - 40 so that a perfect score is 10.0.

Each model's total score is a sum of its round scores. Previously, an average was used instead, but that unfairly benefited models who failed to submit predictions in the early rounds.

Best Calls

Projections that most closely resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
9.99761765 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.99457059 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.99324418 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.99289265 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.99247535 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98666897 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.98637976 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.94527741 Informed Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.94380941 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.90983529 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.90811894 Winnable North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.90534376 The Footycast North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.89748550 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.89039268 The Footycast North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.87770882 Glicko Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.87156003 Live Ladders North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.86334068 Don't Blame the Data North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.84172806 Matter of Stats North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.83310041 What Snoo Thinks North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.83292647 Elo Predicts! North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 5
9.82871018 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.80814179 Squiggle North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.80747021 Stattraction North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.80117635 Wheelo Ratings North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7
9.78399047 Winnable North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 6
9.73218697 AFLalytics North Melbourne
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 18th 7

Worst Calls

Projections that least resembled the final ladder.

Score Prediction Actual Round
-19.7 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-13.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-12.5 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-12.3 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-11.7 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-9.8 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
-9.8 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-9.5 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
-9.2 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 7
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 4
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
-8.4 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
-8.3 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-8.3 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
-7.9 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-7.9 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 2
-7.9 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-7.7 Informed Stats Essendon
1
2
3
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
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18
 7th 4
-7.3 Glicko Ratings Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-7.2 Matter of Stats Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
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7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
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17
18
 1st 0

Optimistic Calls

Projections that most overrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
46.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
44.6 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
39.6 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
38.5 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 1
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 4
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
36.8 FMI Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 7
36.7 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
34.1 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 2
33.5 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
33.3 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
32.3 The Footycast Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
30.9 Stattraction Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
29.3 Don't Blame the Data Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
28.9 What Snoo Thinks Adelaide
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 12th 0
28.7 Winnable Hawthorn
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 17th 0
27.0 ZaphBot Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
26.3 What Snoo Thinks Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 0
26.0 Elo Predicts! Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 3
24.9 Informed Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 6
24.4 Matter of Stats Brisbane Lions
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 13th 5
24.3 Elo Predicts! Collingwood
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 10th 0

Pessimistic Calls

Projections that most underrated a team.

Optimism Prediction Actual Round
-59.4 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 0
-45.0 FMI Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-43.3 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-39.5 Stattraction Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-39.0 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 2
-39.0 What Snoo Thinks Geelong
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 1st 1
-36.7 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 0
-35.9 ZaphBot Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
 7th 4
-35.8 Elo Predicts! Essendon
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
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 7th 2
-35.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 7th 0
-35.4 Informed Stats Essendon
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 7th 4
-34.6 Glicko Ratings Geelong
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 1st 0
-34.4 Matter of Stats Geelong
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 1st 0
-34.0 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 4
-34.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 2
-34.0 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 1
-33.8 Glicko Ratings Geelong
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 1st 1
-33.8 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 2
-33.7 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 7th 4
-33.6 Informed Stats Essendon
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 7th 5
-32.5 Stattraction Essendon
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 7th 1
-31.8 ZaphBot Essendon
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 7th 2
-30.8 What Snoo Thinks Essendon
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 7th 4
-30.1 Elo Predicts! Essendon
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 7th 1
-30.0 Matter of Stats Geelong
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 1st 1